Just over a month ago, both Conservative seats in Southend turned red for the first time ever. As the penultimate Conservative MP to join the last parliament, I saw first-hand the destruction of our party and watched with incredulity as colleagues battled for their own personal brand of conservatism at the expense of the wider party.
Like many colleagues, I face a decision as to whether to join the fight back or move on to pastures new. Key to that decision is the identity of the new leader. Now we have 6 candidates to choose from, here are my reflections and the three questions that I believe every aspirant leader must be able answer.
The most startling observation from the 2024 GE is that this was an election where the weak beat the weaker. As many have already observed Starmer’s astonishing 174 majority was achieved on less then 34% of the vote - more people voted for Jeremy Corbyn when his party went down to a crashing defeat in 2019. However, Starmer's vote share looks almost princely beside the 24% that we achieved - a truly diabolical performance.
I am not as pessimistic as one of Southend’s esteemed predecessors, Henry (Chips) Channon MP who dramatically declared after the 1945 general election defeat that “the conservative party is dead”, but equally we should be very wary of taking false comfort. Sir Kier Starmer does not have a track record of underperformance – taking the Labour party from oblivion under Jeremy Corbyn to one of the biggest majorities in their history in under 5 years is an achievement many did not think possible. That said, Labour’s first month in power in which we have already seen six major U-turns including removing the winter fuel allowance from ten million pensioners should give us all hope.
However, that does not take away from the fact that a period of serious reflection is needed, not just as to how a party that achieved over 40% of the popular vote in 2019 could crash to 24% but, crucially, as to why the only group we won were retirees / over 70’s - a coalition that will never win a general election. National recovery with workers is essential.
The Conservative “stay-at-homers”, of which there were many, will only come back if the back-biting stops. 14 years of a scandal-ridden Conservative government coupled with a clear failure to deliver on our own promises, especially on the NHS, immigration, growth and keeping taxes low was insurmountable. However, it was the bad and embarrassing behaviour of some Conservative MP's, disposing of two Prime Ministers, coupled with the unremitting in-fighting right up until the week of the poll, that really broke the camel’s back.
So my first question for Leadership candidates, is how are you going to restore party discipline? Personally, I no longer care if it is with positive messages of hope or iron discipline. But if we cannot present a united front to the British electorate in 2029 there is little point in us turning up.
Assuming such basics can be achieved, I believe the “stay at homers” will come back to us, hopefully returning many narrowly lost Conservative seats, not least because by then they will have had a belly-full of tax rises, cosying up to Europe and free passes for immigrants - indeed, Labour have already started raising taxes to pay inflationary pay rises. For those of us who are a little older, we have been here before.
However, attracting conservative Reformers into the fold is the real challenge. In my opinion, simply tracking to the right on immigration is not enough. We let the country down badly on immigration, both as a party but also a Government that talked tough but delivered little. We have little, or no credibility on this issue, so simply offering Farage-light won’t cut it.
Besides, a commitment to tackle immigration was not Reform’s only appeal. As a former US Democrat told me at a party last week, “I couldn’t vote for Starmer, I liked Rishi but he was never going to win, so I voted Reform”. The mere presence of another credible right-wing option on the ballot paper is a problem since, for many, the message: vote Reform, get Labour, just did not resonate. Sadly, tactical voting, of which there was plenty, worked against us, not for us.
In many ways Reform’s manifesto reads like a Conservative manifesto of yesteryear. Denouncing wokery, banishing trans activism in schools, scrapping net zero, committing to producing our own energy, supporting marriage and the traditional family unit, restructuring the NHS, rewarding work with decent wages, properly funding our armed forces and, of course, controlling immigration and stopping the boats. Being unequivocally on the side of decent, hard-working people who are proud to be British and love their country and its ancient traditions is not a bad place to be.
Perhaps our traditional voters switched to Reform not because they are closet “racists, fruit cakes and loons” but because they are right of centre Conservatives?
So my second question for all Leadership candidates is how do you intend to deal with Reform UK? If we stand at the next election, with similar faces and similar policies with Reform against us, we will lose. Simply waiting for Reform to blow themselves up, whilst eminently possible, is not a strategy.
For many Conservatives the concept of doing a deal with Farage is akin to doing a deal with the devil and, as someone who lost their seat due to Reform, I am sympathetic. But if you believe, as I do, that the Labour party will do untold damage to this country, there may come a time when we will need to put the national interest first and be practical. We will know within two years if the new Leader is cutting the mustard viz a viz Reform, and it will be at that time that the whole issue of whether some sort of rapprochement with Reform is needed, should be considered. In this respect, a key appointment for the new Leader will be the Chairman of the Conservative Party. A strong, authentic conservative, steeped in the party and loved by members but with experience of what is needed to take us back into government would fit the bill.
Finally, and most importantly, the scale of the Conservative defeat shows that this is not a single policy problem. This was a crystal clear, unmistakeable signal that Conservative voters simply did not believe that the Party was any longer Conservative or held traditional Conservative values. Frankly, any Conservative who does not understand why former Tory voters didn't turn out for them is part of the problem.
Until the Conservative Party is led by someone not just recognisably Conservative but passionate and able to articulate a positive Conservative vision for the Country, the Party will continue to struggle. Other then 2019 when Boris, a uniquely charismatic leader, on a promise to deliver a specific outcome and without the Brexit party (now Reform UK) on the ballot paper, the Conservatives have not won a sizeable, outright majority since 1987 when Mrs Thatcher won a second landslide victory nearly 40 years ago.
We need to be sticking up for the vast bulk of UK citizens who are not interested in the Westminster psycho-drama, European summits, or socialist five year plans straight out of 1970s Moscow. They just want to work hard, look after their families and trust the Government to do the basics well: control our borders, cut crime, provide decent public services, back our armed forces, believe in Britain and be compassionate to those in need.
Most normal people don’t want their children being taught that there are 101 genders, they don’t want the Government taking bigger and bigger slices of their money to fund ideological, vanity projects, and they certainly don’t want the Government giving their hard-earned money away to people who have come here illegally.
The Tories should be at the forefront of saying all this – but the Party has shied away from each and every opportunity, leaving the way clear for Nigel Farage to state the obvious about the problems we now face, after years of uncontrolled immigration without any meaningful integration.
So we need a leader who is unashamedly Conservative and who is not afraid of being criticised by journalists in the mainstream media. We need a BOLD leader with ideas about how to harness our Country’s natural spirit of hard work, grit, enterprise and aspiration.
A conviction politician who believes in the power of individuals, communities and small businesses to solve our problems not Governments, quangos, commissions or reviews. A politician who believes not just in talking about lowering taxes but actually delivering them, but in a competent and grown-up manner. A person who will stand up for what is right, rather than what is fashionable. Most of all we need a politician who can speak from the heart, but govern with a clear mind.
It's a pivotal moment for our Party and I suspect that many of our traditional voters who went to Reform, and who probably want to come back, are waiting with bated breath to see our next move.
So my final question to all aspiring leaders is what makes you a Conservative? How will that influence your decision making? Are you in favour of free markets or more central Government planning? What policies will you pursue to release the power of individuals?
In short, we need a Conservative leader capable of making Conservativism popular again.
Anna Firth – Former Member of Parliament for Southend West
